Modelling Five Decades of Major Grain-Legume Dynamics in Odisha, Eastern India: An Integrated Non-Parametric Trend Framework
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.66635/p0rvxj37Keywords:
Grain legumes, Pulses, Mann–Kendall test, Modified Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope, Innovative Trend Analysis, Spearman’s rho Odisha, eastern IndiaAbstract
Grain legumes contribute to food and nutritional security and help maintain soil fertility in rainfed farming systems. This study evaluates long-term changes in the area, production, and yield of seven major grain legumes in Odisha. Time-series data covering the period from 1970-71 to 2019-20 are used. The study period is divided into two subperiods Period I (1970-71 to 1991-92) and Period II (1992-93 to 2019-20) along with the overall period (1970-71 to 2019-20) to examine variations in trend patterns. Several non-parametric methods, namely the Mann-Kendall and Modified Mann-Kendall tests, Sen’s slope estimator, Innovative Trend Analysis, Kendall’s tau, and Spearman’s rank correlation, are employed. During Period I, most pulse crops experienced simultaneous increases in both area and production. In Period II, however, the trends became more uneven with different crops exhibiting divergent growth patterns. Field pea and cowpea performed most consistently showing improvements in area, production, and yield. In the case of pigeon pea, the increase in production was mainly driven by improved productivity rather than an expansion in cultivated area. The long-run trend for horse gram showed a significant decline in the area under cultivation. Black gram and green gram exhibited positive trends in area and production. However, their yield trends were negative and became statistically insignificant after correction for serial correlation. The findings suggest the need for crop-specific policy interventions focusing on productivity enhancement, area stabilisation, and climate-resilient strategies for pulse cultivation.
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